MS35 Advancing Statistical Tools for Time-Dependent Seismic Risk and Resilience Assessment: Perspectives and Challenges

Dr. Carmine Galasso: c.galasso@ucl.ac.uk

Session Chairs:
Dr. Carmine Galasso, University College London, c.galasso@ucl.ac.uk
Dr. Gemma Cremen, University College London, g.cremen@ucl.ac.uk
Dr. Pierre Gehl, BRGM, p.gehl@brgm.fr

Abstract of the special session:
Probabilistic models and approaches for both operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) and earthquake early warning (EEW) have emerged in recent years. For instance, EEW systems and their use, both in real-time (during an event) and in near real-time when rapidly responding to earthquake impacts (RRE), are undergoing a rapid growth in popularity worldwide as attractive, relatively low-cost tools for enhancing and promoting urban resilience to seismic risk. To date, innovations in OEF, EEW, and RRE have largely focused on seismological aspects and hazard models (e.g., achieving accuracy in real-time event location and magnitude determination for EEW purposes; developing/advancing epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models). However, many important research challenges associated with other fields - including earthquake engineering, uncertainty treatment, social science and computer science - remain to maximize the risk and resilience forecasting potential of OEF and EEW, for more effective disaster mitigation. For example, there is an urgent need to significantly improve state-of-the-art decision-making methods for triggering OEF-based actions and EEW alerts so that they account for probabilistic real-time loss prediction and explicit stakeholder needs. Similarly notable advances are also required in time-dependent seismic vulnerability models, for accurately capturing damage accumulation during aftershock sequences.
The goal of this symposium is to explore opportunities for advancing time-dependent seismic risk assessment/management based on OEF, EEW and RRE capabilities, paving the way towards the development of next-generation decision support systems for time-dependent seismic risk mitigation and dynamic resilience. We welcome innovative contributions related to this aim, including (but not limited to) recent advancements in real-time ground motion prediction/simulation, risk-driven decision-making under uncertainty, aftershock vulnerability modelling, and socio-economic analyses on the preferences of OEF and EEW end-users.
A special issue featuring selected papers from this symposium is planned in the Frontiers in Earth Science/Geohazards and Georisks journal.