MS01 Reliability Modelling, Prediction and Analysis of Complex Systems

Dr. Mahesh Kumar: mahesh@nitc.ac.in

Session Chairs:
Dr. Mahesh Kumar, Professor (Assistant),Department of Mathematics,
National Institute of Technology (NIT) Calicut (an institute of national importance, under MHRD, Govt. of India), mahesh@nitc.ac.in

Abstract of the special session：
A brief description and background
Reliability, as a human attribute, has been praised for a very long time. For technical systems, however, the reliability concept has not been applied for more than some 60 years. It emerged with a technological meaning just after World War I and was then used in connection with comparing operational safety of one-, two-, and four-engine airplanes. The reliability was measured as the number of accidents per hour of flight time.
At the beginning of the 1930s, Walter Shewhart, Harold F. Dodge, and Harry G. Romig laid down the theoretical basis for utilizing statistical methods in quality control of industrial products. Such methods were, however, not brought into use to any great extent until the beginning of World War II. Products that were composed of a large number of parts often did not function, despite the fact that they were made up of individual high-quality components.
In the 1970s interest increased, in the United States as well as in other parts of the world, in risk and safety aspects connected to the building and operation of nuclear power plants. In the United States, a large research commission, led by Professor Norman Rasmussen was set up to analyze the problem. The multimillion dollar project resulted in the so-called Rasmussen report, WASH- 1400 (NUREG-75/014). Despite its weaknesses, this report represents the first serious safety analysis of so complicated a system as a nuclear power plant.
Similar work has also been carried out in Europe and Asia. In the majority of industries, a lot of effort is presently put on the analysis of risk and reliability problems. The same is true in Norway, particularly within the offshore oil industry. The offshore oil and gas development in the North Sea is presently progressing into deeper and more hostile waters, and an increasing number of remotely operated subsea production systems are put into operation. The importance of the reliability of subsea systems is in many respects parallel to the reliability of spacecraft. A low reliability cannot be compensated by extensive maintenance.
The main focus of this session is to attract researchers in reliability working in academia and industry, and to exchange or update the knowledge, advanced reliability techniques available in the present.

Information for the purpose of promotion of the session

The session will focus on attracting papers on the following area.

1. Problems on reliability modeling of complex systems such as assessing the reliability of various climate models, complicated electronic power systems, nuclear power plant design and its safety, risk and reliability.
2. Works related to various strategies for reliability model evaluation and prediction of reliability.
3. Application of advanced mathematical and statistical methodologies, modern techniques in parameter estimation of various reliability models.
4. Design of reliability test plans and estimation of the reliability of complex systems in usual classical as wells as in Bayesian paradigm.
5. Works on various quality control measures related to reliability, reliability optimization, reliability allocation problems, and numerical reliability analysis.
6. The session not only limit to the above, but also welcomes work in the area of applied statistics which has significant application in reliability.